Business Plan & Enterprise Value Models

TradeRisks provides customised business planning models which are integrated with our simulation models. These models allow the client to test assumptions on a large number of scenarios. Such assumptions may be in the form of changes in the debt portfolio structure, operational cashflow projections, capital expenditure or funding projections.

While conventional sensitivity analysis models determine the best response to each scenario, they fail to value the real options that are available only before certain decisions need to be made in response to prices or other variable such as, for example, realised demand. TradeRisks uses scenario planning models that take full account of embedded real options to scale-up or abandon projects. For example, a strategy that is suboptimal based on a conventional scenario analysis model may be optimum in the face of scenario uncertainty (captured within TradeRisks' scenario planning model), and vice versa.

TradeRisks is also a Brixx Certified Partner, providing comprehensive business planning services, including structuring, population and training for all plans, business plan reviews and validations, Monte-Carlo and stress testing risk analysis and the provision of on-going economic recommendations.

TradeRisks’ business planning models measure an organisation’s 'Enterprise Value' under alternative scenarios, thus providing the means to evaluate the marginal contribution of new business strategies within a rigorous framework for risk management.

Where not-for-profit organisations are concerned, we believe that their objectives can be comprehensively summarised in the maximisation of their Enterprise Value including the dividends/distributions made in the form of subsidies and other externalities (such as by building new homes, reduced carbon emissions, etc.). We refer to these dividends/distributions as the Social Dividend and we refer to the Enterprise Value combined with the present value of projected Social Dividends as Social Enterprise Value.

With the same methodology, TradeRisks' models measure the return on public subsidy, grant or donations received. This measure highlights and gives value to the benefit derived by the public sector from investing into not-for-profit enterprises rather than providing subsidies directly to individuals. This measure has become critical in the current environment where governments are placing greater scrutiny on their investment and spending commitments